Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 7.847924 9.269781 10.835983 12.683727 14.798276 17.136691 19.912291
2025-02-02 5.967394 7.862462 10.146042 13.077622 16.715950 21.056025 26.595098
2025-02-09 4.844397 6.996150 9.789011 13.627688 18.706780 25.130458 33.791762
2025-02-16 3.874247 6.077836 9.133571 13.591390 19.821992 28.099379 39.779622
2025-02-23 3.056011 5.182516 8.318389 13.148890 20.240880 30.081455 44.529791
2025-03-02 2.416906 4.415282 7.538369 12.598454 20.369354 31.583306 48.641036
2025-03-09 2.039642 3.983726 7.182852 12.600522 21.250087 34.156691 54.384423
2025-03-16 1.746312 3.634417 6.895837 12.650212 22.170031 36.812449 60.384552
2025-03-23 1.494351 3.309001 6.594025 12.621413 22.933240 39.249489 66.177339
2025-03-30 1.221154 2.888490 6.059619 12.119683 22.851297 40.328476 69.905590
2025-04-06 1.057328 2.653657 5.825971 12.108816 23.573342 42.713245 75.806492
2025-04-13 0.911906 2.428176 5.575037 12.028983 24.152204 44.879677 81.458339
2025-04-20 0.855767 2.395668 5.710011 12.707333 26.168462 49.635347 91.741501
2025-04-27 0.789661 2.327553 5.762859 13.231286 27.946576 54.101866 101.810374
2025-05-04 0.736194 2.279619 5.850912 13.831765 29.911331 59.009208 112.896151
2025-05-11 0.643351 2.110898 5.648754 13.809893 30.677357 61.829832 120.518900
2025-05-18 0.537113 1.880558 5.270006 13.366041 30.569529 63.049984 125.377190
2025-05-25 0.441568 1.655025 4.864445 12.809264 30.173628 63.693428 129.211680
2025-06-01 0.388556 1.542542 4.717344 12.811875 30.916235 66.500971 137.100334
2025-06-08 0.344498 1.446874 4.597804 12.862456 31.758127 69.538639 145.555718
2025-06-15 0.302769 1.347564 4.452554 12.833296 32.421338 72.259291 153.542173
2025-06-22 0.249760 1.192496 4.127902 12.324279 31.983850 72.770568 157.348880
2025-06-29 0.220185 1.114501 4.007941 12.313260 32.654829 75.535301 165.613481